When contemplating the future, we place far too much emphasis on flavour-of-the-month inventions and the latest killer apps, while underestimating the role of traditional technology. […] In the past, I sympathised with a so-called ‘early adopters’, the breed of people who cannot survive without the latest iPhone. I thought they were ahead of their time. Now I regard them as irrational and suffering from a kind of sickness: neomania. To them, it is of minor importance if an invention provides tangible benefits; novelty matters more. […] I suggest this rule of thumb: whatever has survived for X years will last another X years. Taleb wagers that the ‘bullshit filter of history’ will sort the gimmicks from the game changers. And that’s one bet I’m willing to back. — Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly (via Offscreen Magazine)