pointerLe leggi della tecnologia

Non c’è solo la legge di Moore, la tecnologia è ricca di “leggi” che ne osservano e descrivono l’evoluzione, e che operano in contemporanea accelerando il ritmo dei cambiamenti:

In the field of biotechnology, advances are also exponential. In 1990 the US government set out to complete one of the most ambitious scientific projects ever undertaken — to map the human genome. They committed more than $3.5 billion, and gave themselves 14 years to complete it. Seven years in, they’d only completed 1% and were through more than half their funding. The government and sponsors started panicking. Yet by 2003, the Human Genome Project was finished ahead of schedule and $500 million under budget. This was made possible by exponential improvements in genome sequencing technology; past a certain point they started outpacing Moore’s. This kind of progress is astonishing when you think about it. It cost three billion dollars and took 13 years to sequence the first human genome. Today, it only takes a few days and costs $1000. […]

So what does it all mean? It means we need to reset our intuition. The rate of change is getting faster every day, and yet few of us have adopted this acceleration into our future expectations. Our recency bias — expecting that the future will continue in the same manner as the recent past — is more wrong than it’s ever been. Change, once incremental and predictable, now comes in massive and unexpected waves, traversing huge milestones in shorter and shorter time periods.